Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbeb…b982 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-41%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -30.3% -36.9% 45% 36% -48.7%
≤30d 11 -30.3% -36.9% 45% 36% -48.7%
≤90d 11 -30.3% -36.9% 45% 36% -48.7%
all 11 -30.3% -36.9% 45% 36% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 36% -48.7%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 36% -53.6%
15% -48.5% 36% -58.1%
20% -53.5% 27% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records