Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfbf4…ac20 other 316 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13,489 (+20%) realized +$13,508 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%124W / 191L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day78.2pace
Fees−$605est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$485
14 days+$298
30 days+$11,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$3,367
sports 26% +$8,778
world 2% −$361
crypto 0% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 21% -10.5%
≤30d 271 +25.9% +13.9% 39% 28% +6.6%
≤90d 315 +21.6% +10.1% 39% 29% +5.9%
all 315 +21.6% +10.1% 39% 29% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 29% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here -0.5% 20% -4.2%
15% -10.1% 15% -13.5%
20% -18.9% 13% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +21% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$47 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$13,508
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses124 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$605
Open positions1
Markets (closed)315 / 316
History coverage34d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day78.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $285 $266 −$19 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $410 −$5 -1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $108 +$90 +83%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 −$14 -14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$4 -44%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $401 −$78 -19%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $193 −$189 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $400 −$116 -29%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $399 +$112 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $210 −$10 -5%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 +$33 +160%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $192 +$48 +25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $712 −$243 -34%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 −$30 -15%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $233 +$21 +9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $252 −$15 -6%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 15 $64 +$11 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$22 -18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,003 +$3 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $205 −$41 -20%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $50 −$4 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $403 −$85 -21%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $250 +$220 +88%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $18 −$4 -22%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -91%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 −$9 -9%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $618 −$15 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$133 +266%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$6 -29%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $151 −$69 -46%
Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $81 +$198 +246%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 −$91 -91%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +75%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$3 +3%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $389 +$445 +114%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $27 −$25 -93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 −$16 -39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $462 +$1 +0%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $196 +$11 +6%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $579 −$21 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 3¢ $0 55m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 4¢ $5 59m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $110 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $6 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 49¢ $88 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $342 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $98 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY No 4¢ $3 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY No 4¢ $4 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $88 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 9¢ $6 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $6 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 59¢ $1 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 59¢ $1 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 59¢ $5 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 59¢ $2 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 56¢ $20 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 49¢ $50 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 37¢ $178 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 37¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.84 · official $266.16 (match) · 2692 history records