Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfbf5…5763 crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,643 (+8%) realized +$4,643 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%102W / 97L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day54.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,661
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 49% -3.6%
≤30d 199 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 49% -3.6%
≤90d 199 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 49% -3.6%
all 199 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 49% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 49% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 46% -12.9%
15% -33.4% 40% -21.3%
20% -39.9% 37% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$179 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,643
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses102 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 199
History coverage4d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 199 Trades
no open positions (97 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $613 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $619 +$499 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $617 +$394 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$43 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $594 −$578 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $201 +$105 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $616 +$359 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $616 +$350 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $461 +$242 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $577 +$296 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$27 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $601 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $338 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $43 +$59 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $608 +$147 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$37 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $429 +$189 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $616 +$351 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $610 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $619 +$506 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $508 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $618 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $608 +$149 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $511 +$141 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $715 +$351 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $771 +$500 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $490 −$477 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $81 +$44 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $295 −$286 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $770 −$749 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $759 +$154 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $637 +$359 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $754 +$64 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $769 +$442 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $664 +$284 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $613 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $619 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $617 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $594 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $201 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $598 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $616 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $461 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $577 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $601 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $338 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $711 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $808 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $43 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $608 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $429 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $17 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records