Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbf7…c5b7 weather 118 markets active 21h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-5%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate66%78W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$62
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -11.7% -20.1% 63% 40% -14.8%
≤30d 118 -9.3% -18.0% 66% 35% -14.7%
≤90d 118 -9.3% -18.0% 66% 35% -14.7%
all 118 -9.3% -18.0% 66% 35% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 35% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 10% -22.9%
15% -33.0% 3% -30.3%
20% -39.6% 3% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses78 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$4 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 37h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $15 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 43h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 43h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $14 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $15 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $11 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 49¢ $11 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $12 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $20 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 73¢ $9 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $11 45h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 72¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records