Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbf8…d841 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-8%) realized −$19 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$69
politics 21% −$4
culture 18% −$1
world 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 67% 67% -27.0%
all 13 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 46% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 46% -17.4%
10% -20.3% 31% -25.3%
15% -28.0% 23% -32.5%
20% -35.1% 23% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage114d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 46¢ 6¢ $31 $4 −$27 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $22 −$22 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $26 +$17 +65%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 07 $25 −$24 -99%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 05 $15 +$2 +13%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 28 $19 +$6 +31%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 26 $10 +$10 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 26 $24 +$19 +76%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos Mar 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 10 $14 −$4 -26%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $104 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $105 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $31 2h
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 32¢ $22 23d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 82¢ $52 27d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 60¢ $26 37d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 56¢ $25 43d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 76¢ $19 53d
Stars vs. Wild BUY Wild 50¢ $10 55d
Hurricanes vs. Senators BUY Hurricanes 56¢ $24 55d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Flyers 89¢ $27 60d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 88¢ $15 61d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos SELL No 98¢ $100 92d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY No 99¢ $100 98d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 3¢ $10 101d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 5¢ $14 103d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $103 105d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 107d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $105 112d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.67 · official $3.67 (match) · 27 history records