Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfbf9…2df0 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$151 (+3%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%52W / 5L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$6
other 6% +$6
sports 2% +$141
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 18 +4.1% -5.8% 94% 17% -9.5%
≤90d 32 -0.6% -10.1% 88% 9% -8.3%
all 57 +2.4% -7.4% 91% 9% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 9% -7.2%
10% -16.2% 5% -16.1%
15% -24.3% 2% -24.2%
20% -31.7% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.93 per $1 lost it wins $19.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses52 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage209d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $48 −$1 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 04 $1 $0 +25%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 04 $1 $0 +25%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +14%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 1? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 1? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 1? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 1? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 1? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 1? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $75 on May 1? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 1? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 1? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 19 $21 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 19 $168 +$6 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Apr 19 $33 −$1 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on April 17? Apr 19 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 12? Apr 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? Mar 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Mar 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Mar 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Mar 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6? Mar 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Mar 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? Mar 12 $6 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Feb 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the January Meetin Feb 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the January Meetin Feb 05 $6 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Feb 05 $8 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Jan 13 $2 $0 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 13 $2 $0 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 13 $2 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Jan 13 $3 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jan 13 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $47 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 20d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? BUY No 98¢ $2 50d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? BUY No 97¢ $6 50d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May? BUY No 96¢ $5 50d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? BUY No 87¢ $2 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $4 50d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $4 50d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $4 50d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 79¢ $1 50d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 79¢ $1 50d
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 54d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 54d
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $6 54d
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 54d
Will Solana dip to $75 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $6 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 1? BUY No 99¢ $5 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $6 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $4 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.56 · official $57.56 (match) · 145 history records