Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfbfa…fea1 crypto 1328 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,936 (-41%) realized −$7,941 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%795W / 508L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 120d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$780
other 16% −$108
world 14% −$148
sports 3% −$76
economics 1% +$18
tech 0% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -21.7% -29.1% 67% 51% -9.6%
≤30d 176 -15.0% -23.1% 59% 49% -7.2%
≤90d 230 -12.7% -21.0% 55% 46% -15.9%
all 1303 -4.0% -13.1% 61% 39% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 39% -15.1%
10% -21.4% 26% -23.2%
15% -29.0% 19% -30.6%
20% -36.0% 15% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$2,347
Realized−$7,941
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses795 / 508
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1303 / 1328
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 98¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iraq reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Haiti reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $105 24h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 29h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 29h
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $100 29h
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $100 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Haiti reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will Iraq reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will Tunisia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $100 2d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $100 2d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,347.20 · official $2,347.13 (match) · 3500 history records