Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfbfb…84a6 crypto 1180 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30,726 (-16%) realized −$30,699 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%570W / 607L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$2,142est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days−$1,559
14 days−$5,143
30 days−$13,309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$8,450
sports 47% −$21,211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -16.9% -24.9% 45% 45% -43.8%
≤30d 750 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 47% -21.9%
≤90d 1177 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 48% -23.6%
all 1177 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 48% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 48% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 47% -30.9%
15% -33.2% 46% -37.6%
20% -39.7% 42% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$180 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$30,699
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses570 / 607
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$2,142
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1177 / 1180
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$163
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 46¢ 38¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$86 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$63 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$63 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $68 −$66 -96%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Nanari Katsumi Jun 11 $123 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $199 −$193 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $757 −$730 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $661 −$640 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $197 −$190 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $277 +$147 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $88 −$85 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $42 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $42 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.71 · official $50.10 · 3500 history records