Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FB 0xfbfb…de25 sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$107 (+3%) realized +$134 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%70W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$24
14 days+$81
30 days+$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$499
other 32% −$311
world 14% −$74
weather 7% −$5
politics 2% +$3
crypto 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -12.6% -20.9% 57% 52% -14.6%
≤30d 112 +24.1% +12.3% 46% 39% +6.5%
≤90d 139 +15.2% +4.3% 50% 37% -2.0%
all 141 +14.5% +3.6% 50% 38% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 38% -6.3%
10% -6.3% 33% -15.3%
15% -15.4% 26% -23.5%
20% -23.7% 20% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses70 / 71
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions15
Markets (closed)141 / 158
History coverage95d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $69 $64 −$4 (-7%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals No 81¢ 86¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 74¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 6¢ 4¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $20 +$21 +101%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $16 +$4 +24%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$11 +43%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $41 +$15 +35%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$32 +158%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$18 +180%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 +$45 +291%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$66 +325%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 +$94 +307%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$50 +982%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$21 +206%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 6¢ $21 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $30 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY 52¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 69¢ $25 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Unit BUY 22¢ $20 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $20 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $10 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $20 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 5d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 7d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 7d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.07 · official $366.14 (match) · 383 history records