Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfbfd…6175
crypto · 109 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$58 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 74
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 3 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$30
14 days−$32
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$4 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$35
other 18% −$25
sports 1% +$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -21.9% -29.4% 34% 31% -25.3%
≤30d 102 -32.7% -39.1% 29% 26% -40.0%
≤90d 106 -19.9% -27.5% 30% 27% -34.2%
all 106 -19.9% -27.5% 30% 27% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 27% -34.2%
10% -34.5% 25% -40.5%
15% -40.8% 21% -46.2%
20% -46.6% 18% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.42 · official $2.42 (match) · 251 history records