Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbfd…46f8 sports 394 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$474 (+3%) realized +$475 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%149W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$528
7 days+$831
14 days+$842
30 days+$809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$277
other 35% +$416
crypto 10% −$148
world 9% −$224
economics 4% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +54.0% +39.3% 56% 52% +60.5%
≤30d 32 +39.2% +26.0% 53% 50% +54.5%
≤90d 121 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 36% +16.7%
all 378 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 36% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 36% -7.1%
10% -18.5% 34% -16.0%
15% -26.4% 33% -24.1%
20% -33.6% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$26 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$475
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses149 / 229
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions16
Markets (closed)378 / 394
History coverage165d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $46 $37 −$9 (-20%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $18 $34 +$16 (+88%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $13 −$8 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$15 +180%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$163 +160%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$593 +577%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$55 +111%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$38 +185%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $9 −$6 -69%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $36 +$124 +346%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $20 +$12 +59%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 10 $19 +$4 +20%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $44 +$26 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7 +$11 +151%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $29 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $13 −$13 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $11 +$39 +344%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $8 +$12 +146%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 02 $9 −$9 -97%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $20 +$24 +119%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 28 $16 −$16 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $25 −$15 -59%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 50m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $41 50m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $51 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $51 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $71 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $61 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $41 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 20¢ $41 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $20 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $51 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 11¢ $30 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $103 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 30¢ $41 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $54 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.02 · official $325.02 (match) · 1054 history records