Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfbfe…409a crypto 623 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,536 (-7%) realized −$5,536 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%264W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$149
14 days−$339
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$7,259
sports 1% +$707
other 1% +$317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -26.1% -33.1% 40% 40% -24.3%
≤30d 15 -35.4% -41.6% 40% 40% -35.7%
≤90d 136 -24.9% -32.0% 36% 36% -24.5%
all 623 -8.5% -17.3% 42% 42% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 42% -17.1%
10% -25.2% 40% -25.1%
15% -32.4% 38% -32.3%
20% -39.0% 34% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$115 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses264 / 359
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)623 / 623
History coverage131d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 623 Trades
no open positions (325 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $208 +$232 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $205 +$119 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 24 $67 −$45 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 21 $186 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 21 $67 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 19 $68 −$64 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 19 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 19 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 16 $16 +$35 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 16 $101 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 16 $236 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 16 $208 +$252 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 16 $207 +$205 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 08 $348 −$332 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 08 $312 −$297 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 08 $310 +$250 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 08 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 08 $210 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 05 $348 −$330 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 05 $263 +$579 +221%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $204 +$570 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 04 $138 −$131 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 04 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 04 $155 +$402 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 04 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $291 +$393 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 04 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 04 $244 +$265 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 04 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 04 $263 +$192 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 04 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 03 $134 −$100 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $440 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $324 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $205 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $62 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $87 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $61 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $22 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $67 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $186 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $67 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $68 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $151 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1093 history records