Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfbff…d177 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,111 (-32%) realized −$1,113 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$785
14 days−$699
30 days−$1,124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$949
other 5% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -55.5% -59.8% 20% 20% -60.0%
≤30d 25 -30.0% -36.7% 32% 32% -42.4%
≤90d 25 -30.0% -36.7% 32% 32% -42.4%
all 25 -30.0% -36.7% 32% 32% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 32% -42.4%
10% -42.8% 32% -47.9%
15% -48.3% 32% -52.9%
20% -53.4% 32% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$128 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage28d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 65¢ 66¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $196 +$156 +79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $196 −$192 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 −$64 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $290 −$289 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $196 −$192 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $103 +$157 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $103 −$101 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $98 +$126 +129%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $97 −$96 -98%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $152 −$149 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $107 −$105 -98%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $105 +$135 +129%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $105 −$103 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $192 −$188 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $99 +$93 +93%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $111 −$109 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $110 −$108 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $107 +$113 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 24 $108 +$104 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $102 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $196 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $91 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $105 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $65 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $103 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $103 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 4d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $88 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $0 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $4 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $1 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $1 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $15 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $1 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $2 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $1 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $10 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $17 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $3 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $3 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $1 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $9 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $13 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $68 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $3 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 41¢ $49 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $196 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $71 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.08 · official $103.08 (match) · 56 history records