Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc05…9859 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$23 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate89%102W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$60
other 23% −$54
crypto 4% −$3
politics 3% +$2
world 2% +$2
weather 2% −$20
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.7% -26.4% 64% 36% -12.4%
≤30d 11 -18.7% -26.4% 64% 36% -12.4%
≤90d 84 +7.8% -2.4% 90% 24% -9.8%
all 114 +5.0% -5.0% 89% 19% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 19% -9.6%
10% -14.1% 12% -18.2%
15% -22.4% 10% -26.1%
20% -30.0% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$39 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses102 / 12
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage98d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 80¢ $0 $93 +$93 (+0%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty New York Liberty 86¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 −$20 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $86 +$11 +13%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $84 +$2 +3%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$29 +70%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $49 +$21 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $155 −$146 -94%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Jack Pin May 04 $102 +$38 +37%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo De May 04 $114 +$18 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Jesper d May 04 $87 +$23 +26%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan May 04 $11 −$9 -77%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Francisco Comesana vs Bill May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs M May 04 $9 +$1 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Jacopo Vasami vs Tomas Bar May 04 $69 +$27 +39%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $45 +$25 +56%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $38 +$9 +24%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $8 +$30 +398%
Pallacanestro Cantu vs. Universo Treviso Basket May 03 $3 +$5 +152%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $3 $0 +6%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $31 +$4 +12%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 Apr 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $198 −$132 -66%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Apr 29 $10 $0 +4%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) Apr 25 $20 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $54 +$94 +172%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 24 $108 +$5 +5%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $10 $0 +5%
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) Apr 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) Apr 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Apr 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 18 $10 $0 +3%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $10 $0 +1%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? Apr 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF Femenino win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $10 $0 +2%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 02 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na Apr 02 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 82¢ $94 0m
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 49¢ $7 29m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? SELL No 16¢ $8 29m
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 91¢ $0 35m
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 91¢ $96 36m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $97 47m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $86 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 96¢ $27 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 96¢ $19 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 96¢ $26 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 96¢ $14 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 94¢ $9 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 94¢ $75 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $6 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 77¢ $5 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? SELL No 74¢ $25 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 56¢ $8 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 56¢ $20 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $24 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.64 · official $90.91 · 405 history records