Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc08…374f economics 4 markets active 6d ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,267per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 95% −$25
world 5% −$1
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.2% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -44.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -50.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
22.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$9 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4,267
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $11,611 −$18 -0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $4,534 −$7 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $914 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $184 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $184 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $184 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $185 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $185 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $185 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $185 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $185 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $185 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $186 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $186 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $186 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $186 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $186 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $186 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $186 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $187 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $187 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $187 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $187 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $187 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $187 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $187 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $188 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $188 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $188 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $188 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $188 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $188 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $189 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records