Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FC 0xfc0b…a782 weather 704 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$640 (-6%) realized −$628 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%176W / 524L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$186
14 days−$217
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$989
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -27.9% -34.7% 24% 16% -32.1%
≤30d 228 -24.9% -32.0% 26% 18% -25.7%
≤90d 700 -18.5% -26.2% 25% 20% -17.1%
all 700 -18.5% -26.2% 25% 20% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 20% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 16% -25.0%
15% -39.8% 14% -32.2%
20% -45.7% 12% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$628
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses176 / 524
Open positions6
Markets (closed)700 / 704
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 13? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 14? Jun 26 $1 −$2 -146%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 +$11 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 −$7 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $13 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 26? Jun 25 $8 +$4 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $14 +$9 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $14 −$11 -77%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 −$5 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$7 +81%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $31 −$24 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $11 +$14 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $7 −$3 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $32 −$7 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$5 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 −$11 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $7 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 55m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? SELL Yes 92¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.96 · official $24.96 (match) · 3500 history records