Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc0c…cfc9 sports 225 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 175d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,399 (+3%) realized +$13,453 · open +$1,946
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%102W / 120L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,273per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$5,349est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8,147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 176d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$17,127
other 17% −$23,727
crypto 13% −$23,952
world 0% +$2,515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 35% -11.4%
≤30d 76 -12.6% -21.0% 42% 38% -7.3%
≤90d 219 -6.8% -15.6% 45% 42% -14.7%
all 222 -4.9% -14.0% 46% 43% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 43% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 42% -22.5%
15% -29.7% 39% -30.0%
20% -36.6% 35% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,561) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,146 vs −$2,074 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$8,147
Realized+$13,453
Unrealized+$1,946
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses102 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$5,349
Open positions3
Markets (closed)222 / 225
History coverage176d ⚠
Avg bet$2,273
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 64¢ 78¢ $5,967 $7,311 +$1,344 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 0¢ 54¢ $0 $611 +$611 (+0%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Las Vegas Aces 51¢ 49¢ $233 $224 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $2,343 −$2,113 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $2,172 −$1,050 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $3,004 +$57 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $2,610 −$2,527 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $2,073 −$2,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $621 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $833 +$1,097 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $2,523 +$2,037 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $1,127 +$632 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,656 −$1,600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $527 −$500 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,459 −$3,435 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,476 +$670 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,850 +$2,150 +116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,865 +$2,798 +150%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $8,927 +$7,861 +88%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $3,838 −$3,837 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3,551 +$287 +8%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 16 $5,033 +$4,289 +85%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8,613 −$8,613 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $660 −$646 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1,325 −$1,293 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $984 −$979 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,373 −$2,371 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $209 +$343 +164%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,752 −$2,752 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $565 +$459 +81%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $696 −$688 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8,941 +$10,759 +120%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,369 −$1,351 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $565 +$223 +40%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $4,705 +$4,776 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$79 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$488 +461%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $241 −$220 -91%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,451 −$3,451 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $618 −$618 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $101 +$10 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $8,039 +$8,007 +100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $37 −$36 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $6,006 −$6,006 -100%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Will Kagoshima United FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $440 −$440 -100%
Albirex Niigata vs. Kagoshima United FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $417 −$414 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $269 +$174 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 29 $293 +$285 +97%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $334 −$331 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $478 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $41 0m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 80¢ $1,781 1m
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 51¢ $236 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $50 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $136 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $44 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $221 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $306 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $223 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $297 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $439 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $430 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $91 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $253 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $43 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $34 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $22 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $23 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $22 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,146.70 · official $8,330.70 · 3500 history records