Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc0d…d990
world · 65 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage480d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $50 −$2 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $141 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $103 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $40 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $56 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $59 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $21 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $36 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $42 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $73 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $39 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $44 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% −$2
other 24% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 11% −$14
economics 8% +$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $40 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $40 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $32 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $7 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $17 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $18 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $32 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $19 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $22 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $41 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 18% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 29 +68.4% +52.3% 38% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 62 +30.4% +17.9% 31% 2% -9.7%
all 63 +28.3% +16.1% 30% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.1% 2% -10.2%
10% +5.0% 2% -18.7%
15% -5.2% 2% -26.6%
20% -14.5% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $0.00 · 274 history records