Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc0e…ce2f crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$231 (+4%) realized +$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%49W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day60.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$278
7 days+$172
14 days+$188
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$207
other 5% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -10.1% -18.7% 53% 47% -3.8%
≤30d 88 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 49% -5.9%
≤90d 88 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 49% -5.9%
all 88 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 49% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 49% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 45% -14.9%
15% -28.7% 40% -23.1%
20% -35.7% 31% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$56 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses49 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage10d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day60.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $68 +$20 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $68 +$36 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $177 +$123 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $109 +$91 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $73 −$72 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $68 +$232 +340%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $180 −$151 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $219 +$81 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $108 +$92 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $71 −$68 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $35 −$35 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $57 −$54 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $117 +$77 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$18 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $117 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $74 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $48 +$52 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $83 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $105 +$65 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $70 +$36 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $84 +$38 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $78 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $68 +$33 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $94 +$31 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $85 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$9 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$45 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $70 −$43 -61%
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $93 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$57 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $140 +$50 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $72 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $38 −$36 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $51 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $39 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $61 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $94 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $17 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 666 history records