Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfc0e…edc7 other 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,792 (-1%) realized −$1,795 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%30W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,567per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$23
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$683
politics 36% −$92
sports 12% −$1,026
culture 3% −$8
world 2% −$5
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 49 +5.2% -4.9% 16% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 116 -6.6% -15.5% 10% 6% -11.0%
all 149 +3.0% -6.8% 20% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 13% -10.2%
10% -15.7% 13% -18.8%
15% -23.9% 12% -26.7%
20% -31.3% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,338) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$33 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$1,795
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses30 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,567
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $894 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $940 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $818 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,617 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,379 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $156 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $763 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $692 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $694 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,673 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,356 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $850 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $59 +$59 +101%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,135 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $870 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,123 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,083 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $60 +$56 +93%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,715 −$5 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $68 +$44 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $719 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $7,178 −$8 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $5,227 −$6 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,472 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $8,817 −$11 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $715 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $59 +$55 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $5,558 −$6 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $292 1m
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $292 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $918 19h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $919 21h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $892 21h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $894 24h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $939 40h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $940 43h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $817 43h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $818 46h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $714 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $715 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $700 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $701 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $773 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $775 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $762 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $763 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $722 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $723 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $691 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $692 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $693 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $694 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $746 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $748 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $598 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $599 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.13 · official $48.13 (match) · 513 history records