Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc0f…c1e6 weather 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-16%) realized −$104 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 71% −$38
sports 22% −$74
other 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -29.5%
≤30d 6 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -29.5%
≤90d 6 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -29.5%
all 6 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 0% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 0% -36.3%
15% -39.7% 0% -42.4%
20% -45.6% 0% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$17 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? No 28¢ 100¢ $15 $54 +$39 (+257%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? No 62¢ 60¢ $50 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? No 56¢ 56¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? No 78¢ 80¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? No 64¢ 66¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? No 74¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $200 −$10 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $47 −$15 -32%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $149 −$74 -50%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 56¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 56¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 56¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 90¢ $47 26m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? SELL No 96¢ $191 26m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 90¢ $3 26m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $39 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 62¢ $50 27m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 28¢ $6 29m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 28¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 28¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $200 32m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 28¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 28¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 28¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 28¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 78¢ $27 35m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 64¢ $11 35m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 56¢ $14 38m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $50 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 51¢ $32 47m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 68¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 56¢ $17 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $43 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.57 · official $212.57 (match) · 37 history records