Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc0f…1e38 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+2%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$12
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$44
other 9% −$1
sports 4% −$5
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 19 +106.9% +87.2% 37% 11% -6.7%
≤90d 19 +106.9% +87.2% 37% 11% -6.7%
all 38 +50.1% +35.8% 34% 8% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.8% 8% -7.3%
10% +22.8% 5% -16.2%
15% +10.9% 5% -24.3%
20% +0.0% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +107% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage476d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$6 -22%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $129 −$13 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $193 −$3 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $177 +$8 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $84 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $184 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $90 +$56 +62%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $2 $0 -10%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 21 $10 −$2 -16%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Mar 04 $16 −$5 -34%
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $4 $0 +0%
Missouri vs. Oklahoma Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Capitals vs. Rangers Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Marquette vs. UConn Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $86 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $47 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $48 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $74 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $37 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $37 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $63 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $38 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $41 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $46 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $47 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $63 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $30 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $57 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $42 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $47 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.48 · official $86.48 (match) · 143 history records