Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc10…a8d5 crypto 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2573 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$24,919 (+128%) realized +$24,920 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%158W / 609L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2573.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2573 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-62.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 767 -58.1% -62.1% 21% 14% -23.9%
≤30d 767 -58.1% -62.1% 21% 14% -23.9%
≤90d 767 -58.1% -62.1% 21% 14% -23.9%
all 767 -58.1% -62.1% 21% 14% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2573.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.1% 14% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -65.7% 10% -31.2%
15% -69.0% 6% -37.8%
20% -72.0% 4% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized+$24,920
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses158 / 609
Open positions1
Markets (closed)767 / 317
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2573.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 26¢ 60¢ $23 $54 +$31 (+135%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 40¢ 40¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$85 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$149 -41233%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $602.58 · official $595.38 · 3500 history records