Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc10…ca4e other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$58 (-3%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%7W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$4
other 24% −$71
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 12% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 36 -10.1% -18.7% 14% 11% -14.0%
all 50 -5.6% -14.6% 14% 12% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 12% -13.5%
10% -22.8% 6% -21.8%
15% -30.2% 6% -29.4%
20% -37.1% 6% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses7 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage107d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $48 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $81 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $71 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 25 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 21 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 20 $63 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $62 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 09 $9 −$4 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 07 $193 −$49 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 07 $14 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $7 −$6 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $8 −$4 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 07 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 02 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $18 −$4 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $6 −$2 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 24 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $8 +$6 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 18 $6 −$2 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 16 $5 +$18 +361%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $78 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $81 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records