Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc11…246a crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%47W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$6
crypto 11% +$1
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 57 +0.2% -9.3% 82% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses47 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage500d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 01 $39 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $36 $0 +1%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 01 $19 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $5,681 −$6 -0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Quinn Hughes win the Hart Trophy? Apr 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +2%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Mar 26 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $17 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 90d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 91d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $39 93d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $5 148d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 149d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 181d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $27 210d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $31 212d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $11 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $39 242d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 271d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 272d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 273d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $23 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 302d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 332d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $36 333d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 362d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.84 · official $50.84 (match) · 123 history records