Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc12…b948 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$40
other 25% $0
sports 20% +$1
economics 10% +$1
politics 7% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 26 -1.7% -11.1% 23% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 32 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 0% -10.2%
all 52 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage345d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $133 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $109 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $671 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $53 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $105 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $88 −$45 -51%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $332 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $621 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $564 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $619 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 08 $160 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $131 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $53 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $53 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $53 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $59 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $53 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $53 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $58 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $58 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 175 history records