Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc18…3c01 crypto 718 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (764 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$946 (-6%) realized −$966 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%300W / 609L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day764.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (764 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 909 -31.5% -38.0% 33% 29% -19.0%
≤30d 909 -31.5% -38.0% 33% 29% -19.0%
≤90d 909 -31.5% -38.0% 33% 29% -19.0%
all 909 -31.5% -38.0% 33% 29% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover764.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.0% 29% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -44.0% 24% -26.7%
15% -49.4% 20% -33.8%
20% -54.4% 15% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$966
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses300 / 609
Open positions1
Markets (closed)909 / 718
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day764.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 35¢ 58¢ $29 $48 +$20 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $24 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $17 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $14 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $19 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.38 · official $47.02 · 3500 history records