Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FC 0xfc1a…6049 sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,695 (-19%) realized −$3,695 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%41W / 63L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$696
7 days+$103
14 days−$1,364
30 days−$1,854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,774
other 1% −$7
crypto 0% −$50
world 0% +$4
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 44% -3.9%
≤30d 24 -28.3% -35.1% 33% 33% -41.9%
≤90d 76 -23.9% -31.2% 36% 36% -33.5%
all 104 -20.8% -28.3% 39% 39% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 39% -26.7%
10% -35.2% 37% -33.7%
15% -41.4% 33% -40.1%
20% -47.2% 27% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$163 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,695
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses41 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage117d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $254 −$189 -74%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $117 −$115 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $509 −$509 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $102 +$117 +115%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $97 +$94 +98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$5 -4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $302 +$206 +68%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $37 +$14 +37%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $191 −$188 -99%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $205 −$83 -40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 +$347 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $435 +$592 +136%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$93 +152%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,463 −$1,363 -93%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $98 −$96 -97%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $405 −$400 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $132 +$116 +88%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $96 −$93 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $102 −$7 -7%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 20 $438 −$434 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) May 19 $129 −$127 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - L May 18 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $92 +$119 +130%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $102 +$92 +90%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 16 $81 −$80 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) May 15 $122 +$157 +129%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (+1.5) May 15 $20 +$16 +80%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 15 $253 −$250 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $30 +$9 +30%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 14 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $101 +$42 +42%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 14 $70 +$30 +44%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $142 −$140 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Algeria 20¢ $60 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $51 3h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 41¢ $204 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $117 24h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $509 40h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $102 43h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 29¢ $102 4d
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $71 4d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $78 4d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $97 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $94 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $191 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $37 6d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 27¢ $115 6d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $205 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $295 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $244 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $305 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $494 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $435 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $61 7d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 7d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 17¢ $102 7d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran $101 7d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 28¢ $1,463 7d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 13¢ $67 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records