Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc1d…9332
other · 21 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$703 +150%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$710 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$35
Realized+$710
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 6 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$735
7 days+$710
14 days+$710
30 days+$710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage NRG 64¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 25¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $45 +$720 +1593%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$4 -28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$14 -58%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $77 −$37 -49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 +$14 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 +$34 +126%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$2 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 +$32 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$34 +223%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% +$720
other 38% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $1 12m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $566 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $11 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $11 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 2h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes $10 2h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team $10 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 14¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 31¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 36¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 14¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 27¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 29¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+72.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +90.8% +72.6% 33% 33% +155.7%
≤30d 15 +90.8% +72.6% 33% 33% +155.7%
≤90d 15 +90.8% +72.6% 33% 33% +155.7%
all 15 +90.8% +72.6% 33% 33% +155.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.6% 33% +155.7%
10% ← realistic here +56.1% 27% +131.2%
15% +41.0% 27% +108.9%
20% +27.2% 27% +88.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.16 · official $35.16 (match) · 69 history records