Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc1e…16ba crypto 227 markets active 10h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-11%) realized −$82 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate48%107W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$42
14 days−$129
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$75
weather 18% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -19.9% -27.5% 33% 27% -25.9%
≤30d 222 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 28% -21.7%
≤90d 222 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 28% -21.7%
all 222 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 28% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 28% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 18% -29.2%
15% -34.4% 13% -36.0%
20% -40.8% 8% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses107 / 115
Open positions5
Markets (closed)222 / 227
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $0 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -75%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 +$4 +152%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 43¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.97 · official $3.97 (match) · 506 history records