Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfc1e…5e1f sports 436 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$196 (+3%) realized +$203 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%215W / 215L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days−$400
14 days−$327
30 days−$1,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$114
other 13% −$39
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -61.7% -65.3% 15% 12% -59.7%
≤30d 193 -65.0% -68.3% 12% 9% -57.5%
≤90d 430 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 47% -8.2%
all 430 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 47% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 47% -8.2%
10% -14.1% 44% -17.0%
15% -22.4% 38% -25.0%
20% -30.0% 32% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses215 / 215
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions6
Markets (closed)430 / 436
History coverage54d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+60%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$6 -18%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$26 -81%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$16 -63%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-05-07? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Jiujiang: Hayu Kinoshita vs En-Shuo Liang Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-06? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
IK Start vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Beatrice Ricci vs Tamara K Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro vs. FC Gifu end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Ducks Jun 15 $15 +$16 +106%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-06? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys Jun 15 $13 −$1 -8%
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazzaville: Michael Geerts vs Iiro Vasa Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US Avellino 1912 vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Jiujiang: Yunchaokete Bu vs Andre Ilagan Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Francavilla: Jay Clarke vs Federico Arnaboldi Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff Jun 15 $13 −$1 -5%
Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 15 $83 −$75 -90%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $17 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 8h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $9 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $15 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 12h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $10 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $10 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4 16h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 36¢ $5 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $10 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 49¢ $14 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $64 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $15 17h
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $37 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.38 · official $131.38 (match) · 1202 history records