Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc1f…a246 world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,943 (+4%) realized +$1,605 · open +$338
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%59W / 41L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$547
14 days−$257
30 days+$1,028
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$2,194
tech 11% +$115
other 6% −$523
politics 1% −$23
economics 0% +$11
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 71% 35% -5.4%
≤30d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 33% -6.5%
≤90d 100 -5.0% -14.1% 59% 32% -6.4%
all 100 -5.0% -14.1% 59% 32% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 32% -6.4%
10% -22.3% 13% -15.4%
15% -29.8% 7% -23.6%
20% -36.7% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$51 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$4,088
Realized+$1,605
Unrealized+$338
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses59 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)100 / 106
History coverage69d
Avg bet$468
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 90¢ $3,000 $3,364 +$364 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 78¢ 74¢ $250 $239 −$11 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $128 +$3 (+2%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $125 $127 +$2 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 74¢ 62¢ $125 $106 −$19 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $63 −$9 -14%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $125 +$37 +30%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $125 +$4 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $250 +$29 +11%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $1,039 +$83 +8%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $441 −$8 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $128 +$24 +18%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $63 +$13 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $625 +$91 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $750 +$17 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $250 −$129 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,412 +$38 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,250 +$581 +26%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $857 +$22 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $2,128 +$2 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $1,500 −$247 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,625 −$206 -13%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $505 +$34 +7%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $633 −$632 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $250 −$80 -32%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $1,000 +$177 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $375 +$19 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $175 +$33 +19%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $1,142 −$36 -3%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $807 −$18 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $1,201 −$38 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,655 +$130 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 28 $500 +$37 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $411 +$12 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $154 −$21 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $25 −$15 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $2,779 +$453 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $200 −$15 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $10 −$6 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $150 −$5 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2,092 +$116 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $150 −$9 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $50 −$9 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $686 +$478 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $1,859 +$87 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 22 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 22 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 22 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 22 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 22 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +22%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $797 +$41 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $126 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $55 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $49 8h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 8h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $126 8h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $126 8h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $162 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $250 19h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 19h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $127 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $250 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $250 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $129 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $279 2d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $393 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 86¢ $271 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $152 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $131 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $125 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $76 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,088.15 · official $4,088.15 (match) · 760 history records