Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc20…8ed3
crypto · 14 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$1,145 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,084 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,421
Realized−$1,084
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage154d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 3 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1,020 $1,042 +$22 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $974 $971 −$3 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $488 $408 −$81 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $603 $0 −$603 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $296 $0 −$296 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $153 $0 −$153 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Celtics Raptors 24¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $154 +$55 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 09 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $59 +$81 +138%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 20 $790 −$461 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Jan 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 16 $156 −$144 -92%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 16 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 13 $15 +$10 +68%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 13 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 13 $20 −$10 -52%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jan 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$9
crypto 35% −$1,184
sports 4% +$30
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $155 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $55 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $502 41h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $999 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,046 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY Yes 35¢ $140 123d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $140 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 12¢ $102 143d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $59 144d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 25¢ $101 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $153 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 147d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY Yes 31¢ $140 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 42¢ $150 147d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY Yes 41¢ $156 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 53¢ $250 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? SELL Yes 52¢ $329 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 36¢ $34 150d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL Yes 26¢ $24 150d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? SELL No 16¢ $10 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 150d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? BUY No 33¢ $20 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY Yes 30¢ $98 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.7% +22.7% 100% 100% +22.7%
≤30d 1 +35.7% +22.7% 100% 100% +22.7%
≤90d 1 +35.7% +22.7% 100% 100% +22.7%
all 11 -35.1% -41.3% 27% 27% -69.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 27% -69.3%
10% -46.9% 27% -72.2%
15% -52.0% 27% -74.9%
20% -56.7% 18% -77.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,420.75 · official $2,420.75 (match) · 36 history records