Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc20…5374 crypto 879 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$726 (+11%) realized +$716 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%448W / 428L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$1
14 days−$93
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$808
other 18% −$260
weather 10% +$85
politics 7% −$21
world 1% −$2
sports 1% +$27
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 237 -3.7% -12.9% 60% 59% -9.6%
≤30d 851 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 50% -8.8%
≤90d 876 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 50% -1.1%
all 876 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 50% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 50% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 44% -10.6%
15% -29.7% 33% -19.2%
20% -36.6% 22% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$716
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses448 / 428
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)876 / 879
History coverage47d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 876 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 20¢ 29¢ $19 $27 +$9 (+47%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $9 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $23 +$41 +181%
Türkiye vs. United States: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +92%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $43 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$3 -14%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$3 +180%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$6 +221%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$5 +91%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$6 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$4 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$2 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$9 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 27? SELL No 95¢ $9 40m
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? SELL No 91¢ $59 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 31¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 34¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 32¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 28¢ $1 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 19¢ $1 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 19¢ $3 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 22¢ $1 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 26¢ $1 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 29¢ $6 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $8 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 10h
Türkiye vs. United States: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $3 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.34 · official $41.81 (match) · 2922 history records