Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc23…5a3d other 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 702d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$185 (-6%) realized −$119 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%4W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$168
14 days−$168
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$116
politics 19% −$95
weather 11% −$17
world 8% −$11
sports 2% −$4
tech 2% −$2
finance 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -10.1% -18.7% 1% 1% -15.1%
≤30d 176 -10.1% -18.7% 1% 1% -15.1%
≤90d 176 -10.1% -18.7% 1% 1% -15.1%
all 202 -13.1% -21.4% 2% 1% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 1% -15.4%
10% -28.9% 0% -23.5%
15% -35.8% 0% -30.9%
20% -42.1% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

702d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses4 / 198
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions27
Markets (closed)202 / 230
History coverage702d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 68¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-10%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-24%)
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch? No 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 24¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-65%)
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 34¢ 18¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-49%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? No 73¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 24? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during June 24 Rally? No 57¢ 59¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
QFEX FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Down 66¢ 52¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027? No $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? No 79¢ $39 $1 −$38 (-97%)
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will there be 20+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $2 $1 −$2 (-76%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will 100T make a roster change before August? No $1 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 24? Yes 14¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+129%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -15%
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 24 $17 $0 -3%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 24 $8 $0 -5%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $40 −$3 -8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 24 $3 $0 -14%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 24 $15 $0 -2%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $13 $0 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 24 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $40 $0 -1%
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 24 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 24 $71 −$4 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 24 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 $0 -10%
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Beth Davidson win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by any margin? Jun 24 $0 $0 -4%
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 24 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 24 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $55 −$4 -7%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 24 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 24 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group S Jun 24 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 $0 -4%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 -9%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 24 $64 −$8 -12%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 24 $14 −$2 -11%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason Jun 24 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Uzbekistan be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 20 Jun 24 $2 $0 -10%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju Jun 24 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 24 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 24 $13 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 24 $3 $0 -1%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 2.1% and 2. Jun 24 $5 $0 -7%
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 24 $42 −$2 -5%
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 24 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Jun 24 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 24 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $12 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 57¢ $1 5m
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 9m
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les BUY No $3 10m
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 14m
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $17 16m
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 86¢ $17 16m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 15¢ $7 34m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 15¢ $8 34m
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 56m
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 56m
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 18¢ $3 57m
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 20¢ $4 58m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? SELL No 75¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? SELL No 89¢ $15 1h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 90¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $13 1h
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $13 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL No 39¢ $19 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY No 42¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.98 · official $84.98 (match) · 645 history records