Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

FC 0xfc24…4002 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$376 (-6%) realized −$376 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$242per market

Trades / day3.3pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+20.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+52.9%	+38.4%	53%	53%	+22.5%
≤30d	23	+32.7%	+20.0%	48%	48%	+15.1%
≤90d	23	+32.7%	+20.0%	48%	48%	+15.1%
all	23	+32.7%	+20.0%	48%	48%	+15.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.0%	48%	+15.1%
10%	+8.6%	48%	+4.1%
15%	-1.9%	48%	-6.0%
20%	-11.5%	43%	-15.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late +51% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$433 vs −$259 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$376

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 26

History coverage20d

Avg bet$242

Trades / day3.3

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 20	$416	+$487	+117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 20	$235	−$225	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 20	$316	+$1,163	+368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 20	$210	+$769	+366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 20	$416	+$604	+145%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$159	−$155	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 19	$435	−$421	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Jun 19	$365	−$350	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 19	$263	−$250	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 19	$233	+$234	+100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 19	$335	−$325	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 19	$311	+$378	+121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 19	$260	+$225	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 19	$466	−$290	-62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 19	$258	+$191	+74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$508	−$503	-99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$150	+$561	+374%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$202	−$200	-99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Jun 15	$50	+$58	+116%
Will Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón end in a draw?	May 30	$34	−$33	-98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	May 30	$50	−$50	-100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana	May 30	$195	+$89	+46%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$305	−$300	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$104	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$104	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$104	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$104	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$104	1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$159	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$99	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$105	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records