Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfc25…b5ab sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$205 (+9%) realized +$204 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days+$304
14 days+$167
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 47% +6.9%
≤30d 43 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 42% -1.5%
≤90d 43 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 42% -1.5%
all 43 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 42% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 42% -1.5%
10% -24.2% 42% -11.0%
15% -31.5% 37% -19.6%
20% -38.2% 37% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$27 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage15d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 40¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $50 −$49 -99%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $50 −$49 -99%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $50 −$3 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $64 +$57 +89%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $66 +$67 +101%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $169 +$116 +68%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$17 -34%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 +$86 +172%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 −$23 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $24 +$22 +89%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $151 +$48 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $91 −$39 -42%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$5 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $38 +$23 +59%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$68 +112%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $41 +$48 +118%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $59 +$82 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$39 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $72 +$67 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $53 +$43 +82%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$45 +89%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 +$30 +62%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $40 +$13 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $93 −$91 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$3 -22%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $29 −$11 -38%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $19 −$1 -6%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $19 +$20 +102%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $7 +$12 +162%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $8 +$8 +95%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $30 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $23 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 12¢ $47 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 25h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 25h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $46 25h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $55 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $122 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $64 47h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $66 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $284 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $169 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $33 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $136 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire BUY 16¢ $50 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $50 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $50 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $22 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $23 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $24 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $24 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.06 · official $103.06 (match) · 88 history records