Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfc2b…bd1c sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,061 (-41%) realized −$2,062 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,063
politics 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 50% +6.2%
≤30d 15 -17.9% -25.7% 47% 47% -16.0%
≤90d 18 -20.5% -28.1% 44% 44% -51.2%
all 18 -20.5% -28.1% 44% 44% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 44% -51.2%
10% -35.0% 44% -55.9%
15% -41.2% 44% -60.1%
20% -47.0% 39% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$327 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized−$2,062
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage84d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $517 $519 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Miami Marlins 64¢ 64¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $3 +$4 +138%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 31 $3 +$2 +61%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 30 $5 +$2 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 28 $3 +$3 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 May 23 $4 +$3 +65%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 21 $5 +$3 +64%
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 Mar 24 $2,651 −$2,651 -100%
Raptors vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5 Mar 24 $1,185 +$1,185 +100%
Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 240.5 Mar 23 $594 −$594 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 64¢ $4 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 44h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 3d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 41¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Under 30¢ $0 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 12d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $5 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 33¢ $0 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 16d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 20d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 60¢ $4 22d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 61¢ $0 24d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $517 26d
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2,651 82d
Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 240.5 BUY Under 50¢ $594 83d
Raptors vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,185 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.45 · official $522.45 (match) · 59 history records