Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc2c…1a84 sports 244 markets active 4h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%106W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$61
14 days+$18
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$21
other 18% +$18
politics 8% −$6
world 5% +$12
tech 4% +$10
crypto 2% −$8
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +33.4% +20.7% 72% 72% +15.6%
≤30d 194 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 54% -9.1%
≤90d 194 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 54% -9.1%
all 194 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 54% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 54% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 43% -17.8%
15% -27.5% 35% -25.7%
20% -34.6% 30% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses106 / 88
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions50
Markets (closed)194 / 244
History coverage18d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 81¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+24%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+49%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No 80¢ 91¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 83¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 83¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 84¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 84¢ 73¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 70¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 56¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? No 86¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 74¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+40%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title? No 86¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 74¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $6 +$4 +73%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $4 +$1 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +120%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +129%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $5 +$5 +119%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $4 +$6 +140%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +307%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +74%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +17%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +134%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $7 +$3 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$4 +365%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 +$3 +50%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $4 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $4 5h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 56¢ $3 8h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 56¢ $3 9h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $4 9h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 49¢ $2 9h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 36¢ $2 9h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 49¢ $2 9h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 36¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $4 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $4 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $2 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $2 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $4 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $4 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $2 19h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 22¢ $1 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $3 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $4 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $3 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 86¢ $4 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 34h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 34h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $3 36h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $2 36h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $2 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 39h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.63 · official $265.64 (match) · 494 history records