Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FC 0xfc2d…53af other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%13W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$16
politics 34% −$14
sports 7% +$61
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -1.3% -10.7% 10% 8% -9.5%
all 103 -1.5% -10.9% 13% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 9% -9.4%
10% -19.4% 7% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 6% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage113d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $363 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $363 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $395 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $332 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $617 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $715 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $297 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $341 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $328 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $376 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 01 $316 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $363 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $363 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $261 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $272 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $343 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $261 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $304 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $365 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $368 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $370 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $351 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $312 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $360 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $381 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $283 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $307 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 11d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 11d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 12d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $45 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $355 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $355 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $367 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $368 28d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $265 28d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $265 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $327 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $327 31d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $362 34d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $362 38d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $267 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.98 · official $44.98 (match) · 311 history records