Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc2f…10c7
world · 87 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$431,460 -73%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$486,655 · open −$20,239
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$223,733
Realized−$486,655
Unrealized−$20,239
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses73 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Open positions94
Markets (closed)385 / 87
Avg bet$6,809
Trades / day276.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 94 History 385 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$499,779
7 days−$477,497
14 days−$486,655
30 days−$486,655
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 31¢ 48¢ $14,601 $22,890 +$8,289 (+57%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $15,495 $17,973 +$2,478 (+16%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 81¢ 78¢ $18,582 $17,854 −$728 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 37¢ 22¢ $28,946 $16,957 −$11,989 (-41%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 77¢ 88¢ $13,578 $15,522 +$1,944 (+14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 31¢ 18¢ $26,479 $14,728 −$11,751 (-44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $9,970 $12,097 +$2,128 (+21%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 90¢ $9,236 $11,209 +$1,973 (+21%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10,606 $10,382 −$225 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 24¢ $12,404 $10,045 −$2,359 (-19%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 75¢ 96¢ $7,881 $9,995 +$2,114 (+27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 69¢ 62¢ $6,327 $5,724 −$602 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $4,008 $4,816 +$808 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 47¢ 62¢ $3,009 $4,002 +$994 (+33%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 27¢ 30¢ $3,316 $3,583 +$267 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 27¢ 16¢ $5,896 $3,520 −$2,377 (-40%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 28¢ 18¢ $5,156 $3,176 −$1,981 (-38%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 42¢ 60¢ $1,954 $2,772 +$817 (+42%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 65¢ 46¢ $3,539 $2,551 −$988 (-28%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $1,864 $2,437 +$573 (+31%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 28¢ 21¢ $3,247 $2,416 −$831 (-26%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2,255 $2,183 −$73 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 38¢ 30¢ $2,633 $2,100 −$533 (-20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1,803 $1,809 +$7 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $1,451 $1,724 +$272 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$5,175 +65400%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $258 +$791 +307%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $993 −$993 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 12 $108 −$1,024 -949%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14,594 −$14,771 -101%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $428 +$101 +24%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$1,706 +4180%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $884 −$887 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Jun 12 $1,870 −$2,113 -113%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? Jun 12 $772 −$816 -106%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 12 $448 −$448 -100%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $3,107 −$296 -10%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4,726 −$4,191 -89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 12 $32 +$1,315 +4119%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 12 $553 −$553 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 12 $247 +$839 +340%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $293 +$959 +327%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Jun 12 $147 −$85 -58%
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $756 −$756 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $790 −$790 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Jun 12 $720 −$720 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Jun 12 $3,338 −$7,214 -216%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 18? Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Jun 12 $241 +$425 +176%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 12 $5,524 −$9,055 -164%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $758 −$766 -101%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $941 −$989 -105%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Jun 12 $7,561 −$6,849 -91%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 12 $115 −$672 -585%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 12 $14,478 −$11,044 -76%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Jun 12 $5,636 −$8,931 -158%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Jun 12 $7,072 −$14,954 -212%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $993 −$993 -100%
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? Jun 12 $8,315 −$8,315 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $2,110 +$5,744 +272%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 79% +$3,595
finance 15% +$2,269
other 6% −$6,623
politics 0% −$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 24¢ $16 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 24¢ $2 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 24¢ $2 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 24¢ $1 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 24¢ $1 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 24¢ $9 3m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $539 16m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $64 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 61¢ $1,830 23m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $38 23m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $2,760 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $300 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 42m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $210 47m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,060 53m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $131 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,020 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $3,139 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $303 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 45¢ $138 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $353 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $272 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $1,800 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $286 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $44 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $13 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 377 +47.5% +33.4% 19% 18% -66.4%
≤30d 385 +52.4% +37.9% 19% 19% -66.3%
≤90d 385 +52.4% +37.9% 19% 19% -66.3%
all 385 +52.4% +37.9% 19% 19% -66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover276.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.9% 19% -66.3%
10% +24.7% 18% -69.5%
15% ← realistic here +12.7% 17% -72.5%
20% +1.6% 16% -75.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223,733.30 · official $223,752.63 (match) · 3500 history records