Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc30…ad13 sports 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,799 (-13%) realized −$2,799 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate28%37W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$8,005
crypto 17% −$353
sports 15% −$1,732
world 11% −$900
weather 4% −$63
economics 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.9% +4.9% 75% 50% -2.2%
≤30d 66 -28.1% -34.9% 38% 11% -32.4%
≤90d 131 -38.2% -44.1% 28% 9% -68.8%
all 131 -38.2% -44.1% 28% 9% -68.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 9% -68.8%
10% -49.4% 2% -71.8%
15% -54.3% 2% -74.5%
20% -58.8% 1% -77.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$119 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses37 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 182
History coverage78d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $260 +$9 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $306 −$2 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $139 +$37 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $132 +$15 +11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$4 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,955 −$897 -46%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $337 −$78 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $287 +$16 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $112 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $111 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $105 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $96 +$8 +8%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $86 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $3 $0 +11%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Nika Radisic Jun 03 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET Jun 03 $27 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4AM ET Jun 03 $68 −$34 -51%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $263 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1AM ET May 31 $12 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $60 −$1 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $15 $0 -1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $233 −$233 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $216 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6PM ET May 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $28 +$1 +3%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $75 −$30 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4PM ET May 30 $114 −$114 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $82 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $16 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $94 −$94 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Kosice: Peter Fajta vs Franco Roncadelli May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $22 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $269 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $260 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $195 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $304 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $44 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 31h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $391 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $306 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $176 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $67 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $71 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $146 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $132 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $739 3d
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 74¢ $2 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $72 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 5d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 73¢ $2 8d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 83¢ $3 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records