Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc33…4fc6 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%15W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% $0
tech 27% $0
other 16% $0
world 12% $0
finance 11% $0
sports 4% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +6.9% -3.3% 92% 17% -7.8%
all 16 +5.2% -4.8% 94% 12% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 12% -8.0%
10% -13.9% 6% -16.8%
15% -22.2% 6% -24.8%
20% -29.9% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×9.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×145.74 per $1 lost it wins $145.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses15 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage136d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 19 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 13 $15 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Apr 29 $2 $0 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 29 $3 +$2 +53%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Apr 29 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026? Mar 29 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8? Mar 29 $10 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $4 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 06 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $31 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $31 25d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 97¢ $30 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $30 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 95¢ $30 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 95¢ $30 32d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 97¢ $30 32d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $30 34d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on SELL No 100¢ $14 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? BUY No 97¢ $15 48d
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 85¢ $5 78d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal BUY KT Rolster Challengers 65¢ $3 78d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo BUY Tundra Esports 96¢ $2 78d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on BUY No 100¢ $14 128d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 128d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $10 128d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 136d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 136d
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 136d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.98 · official $48.98 (match) · 33 history records