Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FC 0xfc37…fdf4 sports 902 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$507 (+0%) realized +$343 · open +$164
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%833W / 46L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$8,393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$86
14 days−$22
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$101
other 28% +$329
crypto 3% +$24
politics 1% +$9
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -46.3% -51.5% 40% 9% -12.2%
≤30d 103 -12.9% -21.2% 79% 10% -8.9%
≤90d 648 -2.2% -11.5% 95% 2% -9.3%
all 879 -1.9% -11.2% 95% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$8,393
Realized+$343
Unrealized+$164
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses833 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions23
Markets (closed)879 / 902
History coverage153d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 879 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 82¢ $1,252 $1,320 +$68 (+5%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 93¢ $1,123 $1,147 +$24 (+2%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 92¢ $828 $921 +$94 (+11%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 92¢ $841 $911 +$70 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 79¢ 82¢ $817 $858 +$41 (+5%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 67¢ 64¢ $812 $769 −$43 (-5%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 71¢ $403 $397 −$6 (-1%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 92¢ $347 $367 +$20 (+6%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $286 $281 −$5 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 77¢ 86¢ $192 $215 +$22 (+12%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 60¢ $254 $193 −$61 (-24%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 67¢ 74¢ $154 $172 +$17 (+11%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 73¢ 78¢ $141 $150 +$9 (+6%)
Will Cape Verde be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 99¢ 94¢ $129 $123 −$6 (-5%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 78¢ $99 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ $102 $17 −$85 (-83%)
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals Jun 26 $54 +$1 +1%
Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals Jun 26 $54 +$1 +1%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $11 −$1 -12%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $111 +$29 +26%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 24 $8 −$7 -86%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 24 $916 +$9 +1%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $11 +$15 +140%
Spread: Iraq (-4.5) Jun 23 $107 $0 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-5.5) Jun 23 $111 $0 +0%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3 −$2 -66%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 22 $100 +$7 +8%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11 +$17 +158%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 −$31 -94%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $500 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $500 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $146 +$1 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-5.5) Jun 20 $238 +$1 +0%
Spread: United States (-4.5) Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $7 +$5 +73%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,702 +$2 +0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$6 +32%
Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Trincão: 3+ goals Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
João Félix: 3+ goals Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Cédric Bakambu: 3+ goals Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 65¢ $450 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL No 41¢ $10 13h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $7 14h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 45¢ $11 14h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $406 39h
Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $7 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $8 2d
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 85¢ $5 3d
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 85¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 99¢ $366 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY No 99¢ $550 3d
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $11 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under $1 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $3 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 33¢ $8 4d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 97¢ $108 4d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $20 4d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $20 4d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $20 4d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $20 4d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $20 4d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $99 4d
Spread: Iraq (-5.5) BUY France 100¢ $9 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $13 5d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $500 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $5 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,393.04 · official $8,389.74 (match) · 2497 history records