Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc3d…d63f other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-5%) realized −$6 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$7
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$22
sports 27% −$6
crypto 2% −$13
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +37.2% +24.2% 44% 44% -6.4%
≤30d 28 +14.6% +3.7% 46% 46% -14.1%
≤90d 28 +14.6% +3.7% 46% 46% -14.1%
all 28 +14.6% +3.7% 46% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 46% -14.1%
10% -6.3% 43% -22.3%
15% -15.3% 43% -29.8%
20% -23.6% 36% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)28 / 40
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $49 $30 −$18 (-38%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 65¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 54¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 28¢ 38¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 +$26 +508%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $9 +$23 +248%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$20 +100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $8 +$7 +84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$25 +162%
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 $0 -5%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +92%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -6%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$16 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $16 +$16 +99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $31 2h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 35¢ $7 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $9 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $20 8h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $16 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 8h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 53¢ $8 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 10h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 12h
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 28¢ $10 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 31h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 32h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 32h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 32h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 33h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $10 33h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 33h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 33h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $36 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.38 · official $157.38 (match) · 83 history records