Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc3f…efff crypto 728 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,095 (-13%) realized −$2,040 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%378W / 405L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$244
7 days−$426
14 days−$507
30 days−$821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$436
sports 36% −$611
weather 4% −$95
other 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +22.1% +10.5% 19% 19% -39.7%
≤30d 444 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 36% -19.8%
≤90d 783 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 37% -16.0%
all 783 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 37% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 37% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 30% -24.1%
15% -27.2% 24% -31.4%
20% -34.3% 16% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$2,040
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses378 / 405
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)783 / 728
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 783 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Over 45¢ 30¢ $165 $109 −$55 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +599%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 4PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -131%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +4193%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 7AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -441%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +1594%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +252%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$8 +22177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $167 19m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 95¢ $68 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $69 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $30 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $169 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $114 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $135 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $80 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $59 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $84 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $49 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $162 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $55 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $154 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $99 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 78¢ $97 8d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $82 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $82 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $72 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 10d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $67 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.46 · official $109.46 (match) · 3500 history records