Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc40…287c
crypto · 1586 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$661 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$661 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$661
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses780 / 902
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1682 / 1586
History coverage44d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day73.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1682 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$182
14 days−$482
30 days−$522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$3 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$532
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 386 -28.5% -35.3% 34% 33% -27.9%
≤30d 1039 -17.0% -24.9% 43% 41% -23.2%
≤90d 1682 -13.7% -21.9% 46% 44% -21.6%
all 1682 -13.7% -21.9% 46% 44% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 44% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 35% -29.1%
15% -36.2% 27% -35.9%
20% -42.5% 21% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records