Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc44…2adb
sports · 978 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$235 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$266 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses433 / 537
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions11
Markets (closed)970 / 978
History coverage18d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day150.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 11 History 970 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$31
14 days−$251
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? Yes 88¢ 81¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Bilibili Gaming 55¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 59¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +10%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 14 $14 −$3 -18%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 14 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $171 +$10 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $4 +$4 +109%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$22 -72%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +614%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +226%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +34%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$9 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $3 +$5 +177%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $2 +$6 +344%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $4 +$9 +271%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 +$4 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$208
crypto 29% +$3
politics 2% −$15
weather 2% −$17
other 2% −$39
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $18 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $33 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 35% -10.8%
≤30d 970 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 33% -12.6%
≤90d 970 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 33% -12.6%
all 970 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 33% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover150.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 33% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 26% -21.0%
15% -32.3% 21% -28.6%
20% -38.9% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.25 · official $16.25 (match) · 3500 history records