Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc45…911f other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11,406 (-32%) realized −$10,531 · open −$875
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,987per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$4,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,659
7 days−$2,230
14 days−$2,230
30 days−$2,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$11,085
other 28% +$301
sports 25% −$2,531
world 16% −$875
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -37.0% -43.0% 36% 29% -20.3%
≤30d 14 -37.0% -43.0% 36% 29% -20.3%
≤90d 14 -37.0% -43.0% 36% 29% -20.3%
all 15 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 27% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.8% 27% -50.0%
10% -51.9% 27% -54.8%
15% -56.5% 27% -59.2%
20% -60.8% 27% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,490 vs −$2,077 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$4,825
Realized−$10,531
Unrealized−$875
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage595d
Avg bet$1,987
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3,300 $2,867 −$433 (-13%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2,000 $1,500 −$500 (-25%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $400 $457 +$57 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $5,047 −$5,000 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,528 +$1,441 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,047 +$3,203 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $3,041 +$2,484 +82%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $285 +$324 +114%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $610 −$600 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2,540 −$2,500 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $411 −$400 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $351 −$343 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $410 −$400 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $304 −$239 -79%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $11,131 −$11,085 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $410 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $821 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,028 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,566 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 69¢ $1,009 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 69¢ $3,028 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $1,010 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,528 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $3,041 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $3,047 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 47¢ $610 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $285 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $411 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 22¢ $344 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $410 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $65 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $304 5d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? BUY No 97¢ $5 587d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 593d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 42¢ $10,990 594d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 594d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 42¢ $42 594d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,824.56 · official $4,824.56 (match) · 37 history records