Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
FC 0xfc46…a4f8 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,415 (+92%) realized +$3,269 · open +$146
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$992
14 days+$1,174
30 days+$1,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,242
other 21% +$1,978
economics 15% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +53.9% +39.2% 90% 90% +44.7%
≤30d 18 +42.7% +29.1% 72% 72% +41.8%
≤90d 19 +68.4% +52.4% 74% 74% +92.8%
all 19 +68.4% +52.4% 74% 74% +92.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.4% 74% +92.8%
10% +37.8% 74% +74.3%
15% +24.5% 74% +57.5%
20% +12.3% 58% +42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +112% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +112% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$41 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.58 per $1 lost it wins $16.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized+$3,269
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage53d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 67¢ 84¢ $546 $692 +$147 (+27%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $130 $134 +$4 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $73 $68 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $66 −$35 -53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $147 +$120 +81%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $144 +$106 +74%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $141 +$168 +119%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $229 +$111 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $233 +$97 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $58 +$74 +128%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $401 +$159 +40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $177 +$96 +54%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 09 $182 +$96 +53%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $98 −$6 -6%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $202 +$188 +93%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $199 +$143 +72%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 29 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Cruz Azul win Liga MX? May 25 $100 +$80 +79%
Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 May 22 $60 −$59 -99%
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? May 22 $59 +$172 +291%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $29 −$28 -98%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? May 08 $342 +$1,817 +531%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $132 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $25 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $66 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $267 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $147 17h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting BUY Yes 66¢ $209 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $141 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $340 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $229 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $330 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $233 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $132 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $58 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $401 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $75 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $273 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 64¢ $177 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Peru 99¢ $278 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Peru 64¢ $182 6d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 59¢ $93 8d
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $390 10d
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $202 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 61¢ $98 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 57¢ $144 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $342 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 56¢ $99 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 16d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $81 17d
Will Cruz Azul win Liga MX? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $894.29 · official $894.29 (match) · 50 history records